My predictions for the music industry in 2024
AI, merchandising, direct-to-fan, streaming services, TikTok and more
A couple of days ago over on Twitter, I shared a few of my predictions surrounding the direction of the music industry over the course of the next twelve months; some serious, others more tongue in cheek. The responses and requests for elaboration prompted me to refine my initial notes; these are all simply predictions.
Artists will experiment with alternative release mechanisms, and a global household name will hold back new music from streaming services in favour of D2C distribution
The grumblings around the streaming economy are hardly new, and whilst I think it’s unlikely we’ll see the likes of Taylor Swift, Drake or The Weeknds of this world experiment with off-DSP exclusivity as playlist culture simply works too well for them, I foresee a situation a-la Radiohead In Rainbows where an artist with an already solidified fan base choses to serve them direct, either via their own website, or via their own app. Artists are becoming smarter concerning distribution of their copyright, alongside their audience becoming better educated on the pitfalls of streaming. Increasingly audiences expect the place they consume the content to also be a hub for everything else related to the artist - a play like this allows the artist to super serve these fans at the point of consumption.
Merchandise will continue to see huge growth, DSPs and TikTok will further integrate shops
As alluded to above, new audiences view the content (be that a song, a Tiktok, a podcast) as the entry point to a larger world that revolves around the artist (merch, live, community); and we’re just seeing the beginning of this. Where previously artists and labels worried that those spending on merch may do so in lieu of buying the albums thus impacting chart positioning, it’s evident that music and merch are two entirely separate entities, with the former being the gateway to the latter. Vinyl is sold as a collectible, and a display of personal identity and autonomy, as opposed to an act of consumption; this motivation to collect from an artist will only grow in the coming years. Content opens the door to Copyright, which in turn opens the door to Community.
Expect more and more artists of all levels selling vinyl, t-shirts, collectibles and even associated branded items via TikTok. Exclusive merchandising deals for artists will reach new heights, whilst brand partnerships will become even more profit share driven. With that in mind, I suspect we’ll see more artists opting to treat their creative economy as an early stage business, with smarter, more flexible 360 deals providing a source of funding as opposed to simply hedging your copyright on a record label advance. Overall we’ll see more realisation that you’re better to give up a little and grow the entire business slower and sustainably, rather than give up a lot in an effort to speedrun to scale, of which many artists never reach.
Community continues to be a buzz word, although serving superfans becomes less of an obsession
In a world of 100,000 new songs each day, it’s the engagement with the song that defines whether it makes an impact. Fan clubs, Discords and other community tools have flourished over the past year - as artists and labels realise that the attention economy is not one that you can just feed at the point of consumption. Those artists that harness the collective power (eurgh) of their communities will be the ones that thrive. To put it simply, a passionate community is the best antidote to the dreaded algorithms.
Superfans will be treated less like milking a cow for all they’re worth, and focus will switch from serving the top 2% who we keep being told ‘desperately’ want more, to the top 20% that are prepared to engage in a *slightly* deeper way than songs on a playlist or likes on Instagram. Community and fandom is a funnel, through which fans should be encouraged to pass, and exist at the level they feel most comfortable to do so - 2024 will see the expansion of how fans at each level are served.
Apple will finally kill iTunes & downloads
Perhaps saying this in hope as much as anything. This won’t happen overnight, and I suspect iTunes will still exist in some form, but the dead horse that is the iTunes store will finally stop being flogged. I’d imagine downloads will still be available if desired as there is still an audience for this, albeit limited. As a consequence, I hope we see a significant shake-up of the charts, ditching sales entirely and instead moving toward a solely consumption driven operation, that takes into account passive and active behaviour.
Spotify will experiment further with non-music based offerings
It’s no secret that Spotify want to earn from all ‘sides’ of the industry, be it through fan subscriptions, or label promotions. They’ve begun heavily expanding the fan data visibility they provide artists and their teams with, and it only makes sense that they roll out more points for monetisation along this journey. The short term likely involves ticketing and merch, the long term, turning artist pages into a hub and shop front for everything related to that project. Community tooling? We can but hope.
Their events have also picked up steam in the past twelve months, and I’d expect to see more movements from them in the live circuit as they build off the back of playlists, with the engagement data in their back pocket allowing them intricate awareness of demand.
Major labels will shift a certain amount of their focus toward Single with option deals; making the 3-5 album deal a rarity
Whilst there have been successes amongst the ‘TikTok signings’, it’s been an expensive experiment, with many resulting in one singular valuable copyright at the end of it, as opposed to a coherent, fully developed or demand-led artist proposition. Developing a 15second viral sound into an artist where an audience is interested in a 15 month album campaign has proved tricky, and I foresee this leading to less risk being taken on these deals. The difficulty with an artist built on TikTok virality is that it’s likely off the back of one song - meaning you’re left either trying to manufacture another TikTok moment for future songs, or trying to convert the fans where most only cared for a trend or snippet, into a more engaged and committed consumer. Breaking a new artist essentially means breaking a new sound, time and time again.
The album as an economic format is increasingly redundant for most artists, and simply serves to bookend sections of a career. Tying artists into deals that revolve around the delivery of a body of work that doesn’t benefit either party makes less and less sense.
A mid-tier indie label shuts up shop, sells catalog
I don’t say this with any prior knowledge, more just grumblings from labels of a certain level. Those that built up valuable copyright during the 90s and 00s, which has been re-energised by streaming, have found that breaking new copyright is a different ballpark and one they perhaps aren’t prepared for, coupled with deals becoming more artist friendly, making the short term gains smaller and riskier.
The mid-tier of music festivals will struggle, leading to a string of cancellations
Surging costs have hit all aspects of the music industry, with live being impacted the most significantly. Whilst last year, many of these festivals took the ‘grin and bear it’ route, next summers events are witnessing noticeable price hikes for tickets, and I’m not sure the average fan is comfortable yet with a 40-80% price increase, outside of the Glastonbury’s of the world that is. Artists that are able to shift tickets are in limited supply therefore can drive fees up, whilst arts council cuts and lack of alternative funding will worsen the situation.
TikTok will sign exclusive deals for full versions of viral sounds
TikTok’s music strategy has been somewhat confusing over the past few years - at times they seem to want to be a streaming service in their own right, other times they seem content simply breaking the sounds. You can bet though that they slightly despise the virality they provide to sounds, only to see that all traffic driven to DSPs. I suspect it’s unlikely to be permanent exclusivity, but certainly early access would make sense.
AI will make headlines, but won’t alter the industry overnight; we’ll still witness the first ripples likely through non-musical creative avenues
No, contrary to the tech bros on LinkedIn, we won’t see an all-AI superstar. Instead, what we’ll see is AI beginning to reach those tasks that some within the industry see as menial, or beyond their own personal skillset. Newsletter drafting, social media analysis, perhaps slight audio tweaks to production and mixing - essentially the areas where enhanced data learning already exists, although for marketing purposes, it’s likely to be rebranded as AI. Musicians are proud people; most believe they can write a song better than a machine; even if that machine does have the learnings of all songs ever created within it. Sure, we’re likely to still get a few headlines about AI-reproductions or rip offs, but these will mostly be for shock value.
The visual world is where we’ll see the most tangible impact of generative AI. Artwork, press shots, music videos - all expensive for artists to create and edit, and made easier with a slew of inexpensive AI tools; granted, it’ll be to the ire of graphic designers and photographers. Fans will also adopt these tools, leading to more creative engagement with artists.
Catalog acquisition will slow and acquisition prices fall, although the market will become more stable in general
The boom that saw extortionate prices paid for catalog is over. Royalties haven’t increased in the manner that some expected they would and altering the creative economy in favour of rights-holders is proving laborious, whilst subscription prices aren’t growing with inflation. Reinvigorating older catalog has proved trickier and more expensive than many thought, especially when everyone is trying to do it.
And a few creative predictions:
Billie Eilish releases a dubstep inspired single, whilst the genre breaks internationally
Dua Lipa has the biggest radio hit of the year, plus a remix featuring Central Cee
The Last Dinner Party win the Mercury Award, headline Ally Pally by the end of the year
Central Cee conquers the US
Lana Del Rey says ‘hello London’ onstage at either Reading or Leeds
Lewis Capaldi records the next Bond song
Fred Again collabs with huge US hip hop and rap artists in an effort to conquer Billboard Charts
Coldplay announce another hiatus then release a new album, alongside a world tour including a residency at the Vegas Sphere
Jai Paul plays Glastonbury, Cher plays the legends slot